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It's that time of year again. |
Wildcard Weekend: Rookie Stars, Ginger Kids, and Medical Miracles
New Years is over, and the NFL
playoffs are here just in time for the nation to continue its ongoing attempt
at realizing the new-age American Dream: a collective, simultaneous
hangover. It might just happen: there
are reasons galore to stay planted on the couch for the entire weekend,
sloppily day-drinking and fattening yourself on bean dip. The NFL’s
opening playoff weekend is often the most exciting three days of football all
year. The league’s playoff formula almost ensures
intriguing matchups, and this year is no different. ESPN won’t
have to add any contrived drama to make the weekend’s
slate of games appeal to more than just the entrenched NFL fans and degenerate
gamblers across the country.
Cincinnati Bengals (#6 Seed, 10-6) vs. Houston Texans (#3 Seed, 12-4)
- 1:30 PT Saturday on NBC
Andy Dalton, who is easily the NFL
’s
most talented
daywalker and his Cincinnati Bengals are matched up against the Houston
Texans in the opening round of the playoffs for the second time in as many
years. Dalton will try to make Bengals fans forget his
three-turnover gamefrom last year’s 31-10 playoff loss as
Cincinnati hopes to earn its first playoff victory since beating Houston
’s
previous NFL franchise, the Oilers, on wildcard weekend in 1990.
Ickey Woods
scored that game
’s first touchdown, and Boomer
Esiason scored 3 TDs. It
’s been that long. Twenty-two years
between playoff wins is a lot to ask of any fan base outside of Cleveland city
limits, so the Bengals are undoubtedly hungry and ready to go.
The Texans finished the season with
a whimper, losing their last two games to slide out of a bye and into wildcard
weekend. The loss to Minnesota in week sixteen wasn’t
as troubling as this week’s loss to the Colts. At least
against Minnesota, Matt Schaub and company ran into a red-hot team that was
fighting for its playoff life. The Vikings beat Green Bay this week in a must
win game for both teams (the Packers needed to win to secure a bye) behind
another monster performance (199 yds, 2 TDs) by their future hall of fame running
back, Adrian Peterson. Indianapolis, however, had nothing to gain or lose in week
seventeen. They were locked into the fifth seed in the AFC, and still handily
beat the Texans and denied them a bye. Some might say that the Colts were motivated
by the return of their head coach Chuck Pagano (more on this later), the loss
should still provide ample reason for concern in the Houston camp leading up to
this Saturday’s matchup.
The difference maker for the Texans
this season is the NFL’s only openly-vegan running back,
Arian Foster. If Foster and the Houston offensive line can control the game on
the ground, the Texan defense and their star QB killer J.J. Watt should be able
to get plenty of rest and keep the pressure on the Andy Dalton.
If that happens, and the Texans can
execute their game-plan of running the ball and controlling time of possession
and field position, Houston should easily win this game. The Bengals have some
nice pieces (A.J. Green would be the top receiver on every team in the league except
Detroit), but they are a few years away from threatening to win the AFC. The
formula for a Cincinnati victory has to be to pounce on Houston early and force
them to throw from behind. While Texan wideout Andre Johnson had his best
season since 2009 and is capable of stretching the field, the Texans play much
better with a lead.
The Texans boast a much more
complete team with a markedly better defense than Cincinnati and should win
despite their late-season hiccups. It should be close though. Houston is
favored by 4.5 points and I see this game as a toss-up on a neutral field.
Giving the Texans 3 for home field seems pretty reasonable, but 4.5 seems high.
Bengals seem like the play against the spread.
Minnesota Vikings (#6 Seed, 10-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (#3 Seed, 11-5)
- 5pm Saturday on NBC
You don’t
have to delve to deeply into your foggy memories to recall the Vikings and
Packers’ most recent matchup. The two teams played a hard-fought
game at the Metrodome in Minneapolis this past Sunday. It was a huge game for
both teams. For the Vikings, a playoff berth hung in the balance, while Green
Bay stood to lose its #2 seed and accompanying bye if they dropped the game.
Minnesota did what it has all year – hand the ball off to the inhuman Adrian “All
Day” Peterson. Peterson led the Vikings to a narrow victory
and continued to bewilder the medical community and NFL fans alike by running
for huge yards and threatening to break Eric Dickerson’s
all time rushing record set in 1984, all less
than a year removed from surgery to
repair a torn ACL. The second half of that sentence is as impressive as any
stat Peterson can claim when he enters the Hall of Fame.
Athletes recovering from ACL surgery often
never regain the lateral quickness and strength they had before surgery, and
if they recover some of that burst, it
usually takes years to happen. Nobody expected Adrian Peterson to play at all in
the early half of the season except Adrian himself, and you would have had to
have been a fool to expect anything other than a pedestrian year
when he did eventually return from someone who
had surgery after Christmas last year and spent New Years Eve 2012 in a
hospital bed.
In his ongoing campaign to prove
that he is not a creature native to the Earth, Peterson, after not playing a
down in the preseason, put on his pads for week one and began what would become
the greatest season an NFL running back has ever had. While AD ended up nine
yards short of Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yards
when the season concluded in Minnesota last week, Peterson has the honor of
being not only a freak athlete, but a medical marvel as well.
It’s hard to imagine either
coach wasn’t going all out last week when so much was resting on
the game, so it will be interesting to see if either kept some tricks up their
sleeve for the rematch. If not, both defenses should have an advantage, though
both face difficult tasks. Minnesota has AD, and Green Bay has arguably the
best quarterback in the league, Super Bowl XLV MVP Aaron Rodgers. By default, I’m
leaning towards the Packers to win because of their home field advantage, but
the Vikings are not to be trifled with. In addition to the Pack, Minnesota
already beat San Francisco, Chicago and Houston this year and is going into the
playoffs on a four game winning streak. The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field has
been the site of some of the most exciting playoff games in my lifetime, and
this may be yet another. While the Packers are favored more heavily (8 points)
than their AFC third-seed counterpart Houston Texans are against the Bengals, I
think Green Bay is more vulnerable to be upset, although I don’t
know you can call it an upset with the Vikings winning last week – Vegas is
funny like that sometimes. Picking the game straight, I’ll
take The Pack, but I’ll take the Vikings to cover the
8, even if Christian Ponder is throwing passes outdoors in Lambeau Field in
January. I think I just talked myself out of that. On second thought why would
I ever bet on Christian Ponder. Final verdict: PACK PACK PACK PACK.
Indianapolis Colts (#5 Seed, 11-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (#4 Seed, 10-6)
Despite
their fearsome reputation, the Ravens
’ defense has been truly
mediocre this year. How else would one describe a unit that ranked 17
th
in yards allowed per game, 12
th in scoring defense, and 28
th
in plays from scrimmage? The last stat is the most concerning for the
Harbaughlers. If you can
’t get off the field, it
’s
hard to control a game and maintain your energy when it matters most at the end
of games, and the Ravens offense hasn
’t been explosive enough
to make up for that. Ray Rice is an all pro, but his lack of usage in the
offensive scheme led to a
late season Offensive Coordinator change. Quarterback
Joe Flacco has spent his career thus far playing for a team with a dominating
defense led by the soon-to-retire Ray Lewis.
Now that the veil has been pulled back a bit and Baltimore
’s
defense looks a bit exposed, the question of whether or not Flacco can lead the
offense effectively and score enough to counteract the defense
’s
steady deterioration remains unanswered.
Fortunately for Flacco and the
Ravens
’, the Colts defense isn
’t mediocre, it
’s
just awful. The Colts cannot stop the run, allowing more yards on the ground
this season (2200!) than every team save the Jags, Bills and Saints. The Colts
could be the worst 11-5 team I
’ve ever seen. They
’ve
ridden a wave of good will known as
“Chuck Strong,
”
as head coach Chuck Pagano battled leukemia this year, returning to the team
for Colts
’ game last week again the Texans. Inspirational stories
are not to be discounted when it comes to motivating young players, and
intangible forces have propelled squads to Super Bowl runs.
That said, the Colts played in an abysmal
division this season and had a soft schedule. This game doesn
’t
really interest me enough to write much more about it, so I
’ll
just stop. Colts are seven point dogs, and I think that sounds about right. I
wouldn
’t bet this game at all, but if you felt the need I
suppose I
’d go with Baltimore.
Seattle Seahawks (#5 Seed, 11-5) vs. Washington Redskins
-Sunday at 1:30 PT on Fox
This game is undisputedly the
glamour matchup of the weekend. The Seahawks have been nothing short of a
revalation this year. Before the season, the Seahawks and their free-agent acquisition,
QB Matt Flynn, were not expected to make much of an impact on the league.
Instead, rookie QB Russell Wilson ended the Matt Flynn era before it began and
won the starting job in training camp, then proceeded to astound the league by
leading the ‘hawks to an 11-5 record (10-6 to
those living in Green Bay) and a wildcard berth. The Seahawks have won on the
strength of a balanced offensive attack and a frighteningly efficient defense. Wilson
and receivers Sidney Rice and Golden Tate meshed well early, and Oakland native
and former Cal star Marshawn Lynch has turned into the best running back in the
NFL not named Adrian Peterson. There’s plenty of reason for
optimism in Seattle. They are what the 49ers were last year – an extremely
talented young team that just shifted from a mediocre team to an elite-level
contender. The Seahawks are the team that nobody wants to play right now. They
got stronger as the season went on, including a three week stretch (weeks
14-16) where they averaged 50 points
a game. Let’s review: rookie quarterback. Unproven teammates. Fifty Points a game. There’s
something magical happening in Seattle. The Seahawks also have the most
imposing home field in the NFL, going a perfect 8-0 at the Stadium formerly
known as Qwest. Unfortunately for Pete Carroll’s boys, the five seed
will only give them a home playoff game if they make it to the NFC Championship
game and face Minnesota. In other words, not happening.
The Seahawks will be facing an
offense that resembles theirs in many ways. Also led by a rookie QB, Heisman
winner Robert Griffin III, The Redskins and like to play a read-option offense
that allows their mobile young quarterback to attack defenses with both his
impressive arm and freakish running ability. At the beginning of the season,
nobody would have put Russell Wilson in the same category as RG3, but now they
are both solid contenders for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Seeing them battle
on Sunday will be a real treat. Also worth watching out for: Washington rookie
RB Alfred Morris. Morris doesn’t get enough recognition
because he plays with fellow stud rookie Griffin, but Morris has been a huge
part of Washington’s offensive success. Without the
threat of Morris in the backfield, Griffin couldn’t have been nearly as
effective this year. The balanced attack, much like Seattle’s,
has been the biggest reason for Washington’s surprising NFC East
title run. Unfortunately for Washington, RG3 has been a little banged up near
the end of the year, and if he isn’t full-strength,
Washington is in trouble (despite the best efforts of Kirk Cousins).
The ‘Hawks are three point
favorites on the road (the only favored road squad this weekend), and that’s
justified. Their defense has been much better than Washington’s
this year, and will be the difference in the game if Seattle hopes to win,
which I think they will. Take the Seattle cover.
Enjoy the weekend, don’t
drink and drive, and keep the delivery pizzas to a three-pie limit over the
course of the four games. Moderation in everything, right?